Though plenty of experts warned that Iran could and would likely close the strait if attacked, this crisis seems to have come as a surprise to those prosecuting the war.
President Donald Trump had tried to cajole allies into sending ships to help reopen the strait, something most of them declined to do. In an angry post on Truth Social and later speaking to reporters in the White House, Trump said the U.S. did not need NATO “but they should have been there.”
Rouzbeh Parsi, an adjunct lecturer at Sweden’s Lund University, agreed that the assassinations “will most likely not affect the operational side of the war.”
But the targeted killings will likely hamper the effectiveness of Iran’s internal operations, according to Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst.
“They can scramble command, slow decision-making, force successors into hiding, and demoralize both leadership and foot soldiers alike,” he said.
He described Larijani as “an important piece of that puzzle, as someone who acted as a coordinator between different actors within the Islamic Republic.” His death “could increase internal tensions in the short term, even if it ends up reinforcing the IRGC in the longer term.”
That point is key, and one that has been made throughout this conflict since the killing of Khamenei. Many Western observers fear that, by taking out Iran’s current leaders, it will only create a vacuum to be filled by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country’s feared paramilitary, political and economic behemoth.
“If you look at how the assassination of Ali Khamenei empowered the most hard-line and security elements within the Islamic Republic of Iran, then Larijani’s death could act as an accelerator to that path,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
One of the many hats worn by the pragmatist Larijani was his role as a leading negotiator tasked with finding common ground with Washington.
“Israel seems to be turning its attention to targeting those that could push for a political solution to overcome Iran’s troubles at home and abroad,” Geranmayeh said.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment on this allegation.
Israel’s war was launched from a place of international fragility after its deadly assault on the Gaza Strip.
A new NBC News poll showed more registered American voters view Israel negatively than positively, a change from a few years ago. And Iran’s retaliatory attacks on surrounding Arab Gulf states may not win Tehran any new regional friends, but could also further harden dismay at Israel’s actions.
It also remains to be seen what internal strife and machinations are triggered by the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
Israel has deployed its assassination strategy with dramatic but mixed results in Lebanon and Gaza, killing Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar, the leaders of Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas.
“Losing Nasrallah was a major blow to the group’s ability to maneuver a far more complicated landscape in Lebanon in the long term,” Horowitz said.
But, he said, “the group is still fighting.”
