Welsh Grand National: Jamie Lynch’s guide for Chepstow’s showpiece

Jamie Lynch, our Senior Form Analyst, weighs up the credentials of ten of the top candidates for Chepstow’s premier contest on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing.

The Coral Welsh Grand National, at 2.50pm on Friday, is a race with a rich history, implemented in the 19th century, and it has stood the test of time. It still has great pulling power, highlighted by this year’s entries.

The trial at the track in early December has been the pivotal pointer to the race in recent years, but we have no such clue this time after that meeting was lost to Storm Darragh, and so, to help with the homework, here’s a summary of the main contenders for the Chepstow showpiece and a (pre-declarations) verdict on the best bet.

Watch the Coral Welsh Grand National from Chepstow live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Friday 27th December.

Evies Vladimir

Trainer: G P Cromwell

An intriguing contender from an Irish stable with an excellent record with its British raiders (21 winners in the last three seasons). This lad sat on the sidelines for 18 months after laying the groundwork but took off last season while promising greater heights in the future, and remained in the mix when falling at the third-last in the Porterstown on his comeback. He has hidden depths, but one thing that’s clear from his record is that he loves the mud.

Fontaine Collanges

Miss V Williams

This runner returned with a bang at Haydock (beating Monbeg Genius and company) but that’s not unusual for her, given fresh is generally the best time to catch her, in contrast to her dimmer second start back which have seen her trail in fifth, fourth and ninth in previous seasons – a problematic pattern for Chepstow. On the face of it, an 8lb rise to 148 for her demolition job at Haydock is by no means harsh, but history warns of a reproduction, and she has got lost in big fields in the past.

Galia Des Liteaux

D Skelton

Her two attempts at marathons have arguably been her best-ever runs – second in the Classic Chase (from the mark she’s back to now) and eighth in the Grand National when still in the thick of things approaching the last. She hasn’t hit her top line so far this season but the ground hasn’t been so soft as suits her and she looked as good as new for much of the Coral Gold Cup. This race is tailor-made for her.

Iron Bridge

Jonjo & A J O’Neill

It’s best to focus on the 17 he beat rather than the one he couldn’t (34 lengths behind runaway winner Nassalam) when assessing his second in this race last year, and he’s 6lbs lower in the handicap now, by virtue of running in hard races rather than any loss of ability as such. His reappearance at Carlisle was hardly a sufficient stamina test, therefore shaping well for third under 12st1lb behind Val Dancer, and everything is in place for a big run from him. He’s gone a little under the radar with the stable sending Monbeg Genius as well.

Iwilldoit

S Thomas

He’s been there, done that and got several t-shirts. The 2021 Welsh National hero, as well as nearly winning the race without Nassalam last year (just behind Iron Bridge) when having top weight, partnered by a 7-lb conditional then as here. He’ll be turning 12 in a few days but he’s relatively low mileage and, though long absent, he’s presumably been kept fresh for this, remembering that he won the Classic Chase first time out in 2023.

Jubilee Express

S Thomas

The least exposed after just ten runs, but he’s already shown what he is, a stamina-stacked mudlark, highlighted by the culmination to last season when grinding it out over 3½m on not just heavy but Haydock heavy. No sooner did he cross the line that day than Sam Thomas probably hatched a plan towards the Welsh National, a suitable staying test, and the lack of a prep run isn’t so off-putting with him given the first-time record of the stable which produced Iwilldoit to win a Classic Chase after a year out.

Monbeg Genius

Jonjo & A J O’Neill

What’s still implanted in my mind is his third in the 2023 Ultima behind none other than Corach Rambler and Fastorslow, a wonder that he hasn’t managed to win since, but at least he started this season better than he ended the last one by finishing second (to Fontaine Collonges) at Haydock. With his tools and talent, he could win this easily, but trusting him to do it is another matter, and the trust issues extend to stamina at Chepstow, his first ever marathon.

Stuzzikini

G Elliott

This contender has youth on his side at just six years old, of which there’ve been five winners in the last 20 years. He sprang something of a surprise in the Troytown at odds of 20-1 last time when the yard had nine runners but the issue for the Welsh National is less the increased test (shapes like a thorough stayer) and more the increased mark, up 9lbs.

That seems excessive on the face of it given the form didn’t really match the title at Navan but what underpins his chance is the simple fact he’s an unexposed horse from an Irish superpower stable.

Where It All Began

G Elliott

Winless in his first seven chases but finally flexing his stamina muscles made the difference in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown (won by 16 lengths on heavy ground) and probably sacrificed his chance in the Irish National itself by running in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham where he was a fair fourth to Inothewayurthinkin. Still a sense of unfinished business about him, especially in endurance terms, but it’s a big ask to come here first time out even if we’re dealing with Gordon Elliott.

Your Own Story

Miss Lucinda V Russell

You don’t need a degree to diagnose the issue with Your Own Story, a sure case of “seconditis,” finishing runner-up on no fewer than eight occasions over fences, including in endurance events at Punchestown last May and Kelso, in the Borders National, last time. He’ll go well for a long way but if he couldn’t win those how is he going to win this?

JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT

Once bitten twice shy, they say, but I put up GALIA DES LITEAUX for the Coral Gold Cup and think that losses can be recouped here in the face of a more suitable test, the company a little less hot, the trip that much longer and, crucially, the ground appreciably softer. If Dan Skelton could have designed a race for her, I’m pretty sure it would look a lot like this.