One of the seemingly few bankable results early in this NFL season was the Detroit Lions scoring at least 30 points. They did it in four straight wins to start 4-1 and place themselves in the conversation of Super Bowl contenders.
Yet the Lions have failed to exceed that total in each of their last three games, including Sunday’s 27-24 loss to Minnesota.
The NFL’s best offense propelled the Indianapolis Colts to a 7-1 start. Then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over six times — more than their total from the previous eight games combined — in a stunning loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And the Green Bay Packers, who had re-asserted themselves as Super Bowl contenders during a 5-1-1 start? Naturally, they suffered their season’s first home loss on Sunday to a middling Carolina Panthers team.
What connects those three results is the notion that at the season’s halfway mark, there appears to be a paucity of pigskin dominance across a league where teams toggle between looking superb and sliding, varying on the week.
Entering this week, ESPN’s Football Power Index projected the Indianapolis Colts to finish with the highest win total in the league, at 12.2. How low is that? The last time 12 wins was enough to lead the league was 2014.
In another sign of the parity that has led to many good teams, but no dominant leader, 12 teams entered Week 9 with positive expected-points-added ratings on both offense and defense. Through the same point last year, there were nine such teams; the season before, seven.
One potential factor is the 2024 introduction of the “dynamic kickoff” that became permanent before this season. The rule change incentivizes the kicking team to kick a playable ball. Balls kicked into the end zone result in the offensive team taking over at their own 35-yard line, a yardage that gives offenses a sizable head start on their ensuing drive. Field-goal range is now only a few passes away.
Facing often shorter fields, offenses in 2025 are averaging 328.9 yards per game, the lowest league average since 2008, yet are scoring 2.14 points per drive, the second-highest in NFL history.
In Green Bay’s case, Sunday’s loss — to a Panthers team coming off a 31-point loss — wasn’t one to simply shrug off as a bad day. Star tight end Tucker Kraft was carted off with what was called a knee injury that Packers coach Matt LaFleur said “doesn’t look good.”
In Detroit, the Lions gained more yards, completed all three four-down conversions and held the ball three minutes longer yet lost to the Vikings by committing more turnovers and converting fewer red-zone opportunities into points.
“It’s probably one of the worst games we’ve played in a really long time,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said.
But the most baffling performance by a team previously sitting at or near the top of a conference was Indianapolis. Quarterback Daniel Jones had resurrected his career with the Colts by leading the team to its most points through eight games since 1964. The Colts had turned the ball over just four times in eight games, only for Jones to personally throw three interceptions and lose two fumbles against the Steelers alone.
Their record, to this point, had largely been built on beating teams with losing records. The season’s final half, then, will be spent learning whether the Colts are the rare, dominant team they appeared for two months, or simply one of several good ones.
