Sixty-six attempts. One goal. One team with a problem to solve as the threat of relegation looms large.
Nottingham Forest’s defeat to Brighton was another case of what could have been. On several occasions, boss Vitor Pereira was animated on the touchline as he watched his side spurn several good opportunities to take something from the Amex.
It is the same story that has repeated itself in recent weeks. Points have been left on the table on account of Forest’s poor finishing. But is it simply poor finishing, or rather poor choices in front of goal?
It goes without saying that 66 attempts on goal across the last three games is the highest in Premier League over that period. Even leaders Arsenal, who have played a game extra in that time, don’t come close. Forest also have the highest xG, standing at 4.54.
Of course, a lot of that owes to the fact that more than half of those shots came in one game. Forest mustered 35 attempts in their draw with Wolves without success. The second most with no reward in Premier League history. If just one had gone in, that would be enough for Forest to currently be sitting above Tottenham.
Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis (R) was left with his head in his hands as Forest failed to score against Wolves
But when you take a deeper dive into the numbers, something becomes apparent. Across the three games, Forest have created just 47 chances. This means close to 30 per cent of their shots at goal have come without being deemed a ‘chance’.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Nottingham Forest’s Premier League defeat at Brighton
Of the 66 attempts, Elliot Anderson has had the most with 12 at a combined xG of just 0.43. That’s just over 0.03 per effort. Gibbs-White follows with 10 shots at a combined xG of 0.82. Incredibly, in third is defender Neco Williams with eight shots.
The two strikers that led the line in those games, Igor Jesus and Lorenzo Lucca, combined for just six attempts. It shows that Forest aren’t focused on creating clear-cut opportunities for their frontmen. It’s a case of quantity over quality. Especially when compared to what they produced last season.
Forest pining for Wood to return
The 47 chances created across the last three games comes to an average of 15.67 per match. That’s a big increase from their season average of 9.36 and last season’s figure of 8.79.
Chris Wood has been out of action since October with a knee injury
The obvious difference between then and now? The absence of one Chris Wood. The New Zealander’s 20-goal Premier League campaign last season was impressive enough. Add to it that his xG was just 13.35 highlights how clinical he was. Only Bryan Mbeumo outperformed his xG by a larger margin.
His xG per 90 minutes of 0.4 is comparable to Anderson’s figure over the entirety of the last three. That’s with Wood averaging barely over two shots on goal per game.
The only player over this current period who has remotely similar data is Lucca. His two shots registered an xG of 0.56, but he has been left on the bench ever since Vitor Pereira came in.
Lucca is also the closest mould to Wood as a player. A towering centre-forward with a physical presence in the penalty area. A target for players to aim at. That seems to suit Forest best, but if he continues to lack the efficiency, the need for Wood to return will only become more desperate.
The 34-year-old last kicked a ball in October and has been on the sidelines following knee surgery. However, Pereira has said he hopes to have the striker back soon.
It is a lot of pressure to put on someone after a lengthy spell out, but Wood will surely have little to no time to be eased back in if these problems in front of goal persist.
More of the same against City?
Before Wood makes a comeback, Pereira has to address the here and now.
A trip to the Etihad is hardly the game that most Forest fans would be wishing for during this torrid run. However, City aren’t the same well-oiled machine they used to be. Teams can get at them.
City have conceded 283 shots this season – just over 10 per 90. Over that last five games though, that has risen to 13.6, indicating they are more fragile than normal.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The Super Sunday panel reflect on Gianluigi Donnarumma’s critical save from Alexis Mac Allister late on, with Man City boss Pep Guardiola re-enacting the stop on the touchline
That’s the positive for Forest. The negative is that it doesn’t matter. Not only have they won all bar one of those fixtures, but City are just impenetrable. No team have prevented more goals than Pep Guardiola’s side in the Premier League this season.
Pereira has been on record saying that he will not set up his team to settle for draws. It’s win at all costs. At this point, it needs to be. But the maths is simple. If you don’t score, you don’t win. And Forest need to find that missing ingredient before it is too late.
Watch free highlights from the midweek Premier League games shortly after full-time across Sky Sports’ platforms
