Arsenal have a four-point lead at the top of the Premier League table. They’re frontrunners and according to the numbers, they’re the favourites. But how many points are needed to win the title this season?
The Opta supercomputer has given Arsenal a 66-per-cent chance of winning the Premier League – and for good reason. Because opposition teams are really struggling to get close to them.
Arsenal have pulled off eight wins in a row in all competitions – winning the last six without conceding a goal. The Gunners have only conceded twice since the September international break – while only Erling Haaland has managed to score from open play against this Arsenal defence all season.
And if they keep going like this, they’re also on course to break Chelsea’s record for the fewest goals conceded in a Premier League season. Jose Mourinho’s Blues let in just 15 goals in the 2004/05 campaign – but Arsenal are on course to let in just 13.
What is also helping Arsenal is a lack of consistency from their rivals. Liverpool and Man City have lost seven games between them already – that’s over half of the amount they lost last season and we’re only nine games in.
“This has got to be their year,” said Sky Sports’ Gary Neville. “They aren’t miles better than last year but are repeating levels of consistency and that’s all they are going to have to do this year to win the league.
“They aren’t going to have to get 100 points, or even 90. High 80s will win the title – they can do that.”
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On his podcast, Gary Neville backs Arsenal to be crowned Premier League champions in May by stating it’s theirs to win, not lose
Is Neville right? What the numbers say…
And according to the Opta predicted table, if Arsenal and their title rivals keep playing like this – then 70 points would be enough for the Gunners to win the title.
That’s the lowest points total for a Premier League champions ever, with Manchester United’s 1996-97 tally of 75 points the current record low.
In any case, Arsenal are currently predicted by Opta to record 80 points – with an 11-point lead over Liverpool and Man City come the end of the season, meaning they could win the title with three games to spare.
And, by the way, Arsenal’s third-last game of the season is away at West Ham, meaning Declan Rice could win the title in front of his former club and fans. Imagine that.
But football’s obviously not as straightforward as that. Because what if Liverpool and Man City get their act together?
If Liverpool work out their issues and go back to last season’s form in terms of points-per-game, then they could still reach 85 points from here.
And if Man City go back to the points per game form that got them to four league titles in a row, then they would also get 85 points.
So Neville is right, high 80s should be enough for the Gunners to claim the title – even if Liverpool and Man City return to the best levels we’ve ever seen.
With the Gunners currently on course to record 93 points if they continue at their current rate, it gives them around seven dropped points in terms of leeway over City and Liverpool.
Could Arsenal’s form dip?
Of course, Arsenal could come unstuck themselves. But right now, it’s very difficult to see – mainly due to their squad depth.
Injuries have been the Arsenal’s Achilles heel over recent seasons. But the sheer numbers Arsenal have at their disposal have ensured they can sit at the top of the Premier League table, even amid an injury crisis.
Remember, they’ve already lost Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Noni Madueke and Kai Havertz to injuries lasting at least a month across this first part of the season – and they’re still top.
And that’s despite being given one of the toughest starts to the season in terms of fixtures, alongside Manchester United.
Take the 1-0 win over Crystal Palace as an example of Arsenal’s squad depth. When William Saliba, Declan Rice and Riccardo Calafiori limped off, all three had more than adequate replacements in the shape of Cristhian Mosquera, Mikel Merino and Myles Lewis-Skelly. So injuries seem unlikely to derail them too much from here.
But there is one player whose absence could seriously test Arsenal’s depth, and that’s Martin Zubimendi.
The Spanish midfielder has been an important metronome in the Arsenal midfield, creating chances from deep but also protecting that back four really well.
But if he gets injured then Christian Norgaard is a very different player as his back-up. Declan Rice could also replace Zubimendi at the base of the midfield, but he has transitioned into more of an attacking player, so would ideally play higher up.
Another figure Arsenal cannot afford to lose right now is Viktor Gyokeres. An injury to the Swede would leave Arsenal without a recognised centre forward if Havertz is still injured – the same situation they were left with at the back end of last season, which ended trophyless.
But Havertz and and Madueke are due to return from their long-term absences after the November international break, which will only boost Arsenal’s squad – and frontline.
If Arsenal keep going as they are, they could breeze to a first league title in 21 years. But… this is the Premier League, there’s always a twist.
