This fall, New England’s famous foliage show may not last as long as leaf peepers hope. After a summer of drought and erratic rainfall, experts predict the colors will arrive early, burn bright and then fade faster than usual.
The timing matters beyond capturing Instagram-worthy photos. Each year, millions of visitors flock to New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine to hike, drive and wander beneath the changing canopy, bringing as estimated $8 billion to local economies, according to the U.S. Forest Service.
But this year, scientists say the iconic display will be less predictable, with patchy bursts of color replacing the sweeping, weekslong waves of red, orange and gold.
A ‘bright, brief and early’ season
Jim Salge, Yankee Magazine’s fall foliage forecaster, predicts the transition will be “bright, brief and early.” Some leaves are already browning and dropping before showing their bright color.
“Whereas we usually see a wave of leaves turning, moving from the north and inland and uphill to the south and coastal areas, we’re expecting more of a patchwork this year as stressed trees turn early,” Salge said.
Trees become “stressed” when they don’t get enough water, which impairs photosynthesis — the process of turning sunlight into energy. Too much water can suffocate their roots.
Salge recommends traveling to Vermont’s White Mountains, Maine’s western ranges, southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts, where stressed trees may hold up better than more drought-stricken forests farther north.
Peak color is expected late September at higher elevations, shifting to Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine in early October, about a week earlier than usual.
“The nice thing about New England is if you miss it, you can always move further south,” he said. “If you’re too early, just you just go north or up the hills into the mountains.”
Travelers can track the foliage with tools such as Yankee Magazine’s Peak Foliage Map and I Love NY’s weekly reports.
Why foliage is shifting
Although climate change has generally delayed fall in recent decades, this year’s dry summer is pushing the timeline up.
“Ideally, what’s good for a forest is to have mild events of rain that are broadly distributed during the course of the year,” said Mukund Rao, an assistant research professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “But if you have an extreme storm, a month without rain, and then another extreme storm, it’s too quick for the water to soak in.”
Vibrant foliage colors thrive on warm days and cool nights, but warmer evenings and stressed trees accelerate leaf drop. Unhealthy or stressed trees also tend to have shorter transitions and duller leaves, Rao said. In contrast, trees in urban areas often hold color longer because buildings and pavement retain heat, while street lamps provide extra light.
Other threats include tree fungus from heavy spring rains and beech leaf disease, which has been killing off glowing late-season beech trees.
“We’re seeing a lot of invasive insects that are changing our forests, killing whole species of trees again, as well as invasive plants that are disrupting the pattern of reforestation and succession,” Salge said.
Tracking change
To make predictions, Salge relies on weather forecasts and phenological data, or the tracking of seasonal life cycles.
One unusual source: Polly’s Pancake Parlor in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire, which has tracked local foliage since 1975. Its records show peak color arrived for two weeks in late September of that year, but in 2024 shifted to only two days in early October.
The USA National Phenology Network also collects and shares observations and data nationwide. Its Nature’s Notebook app enlists volunteers to log seasonal changes, data that has powered more than 200 scientific studies according to Theresa Crimmins, the organization’s director.
“We have a kind of general understanding of the nature,” Crimmins said. “When it comes down to individual species in specific locations, there’s a lot actually that we don’t know.”
A revamped version of the app launching this spring will allow users to upload photos, even for one-time observations.
“The world needs more people observing and becoming citizen scientists,” Salge said. “Their view of the world is data.”
